Why China’s Belt-Road Initiative is a puzzle?

World leaders have put out dire warnings on the import of certain events like the 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which was held in October 2022.

China’s Road network leading to multiple placing across middle east, leading to the crowded market of western europe.

Vision of Xi Jinping for China:

• PLA: It should be able to stage military operations quickly and have the “ability to win local wars”.
• Taiwan’s reunification: China would make efforts to bring back the territory peacefully
• It could also deploy military means to achieve its aims.
• Xi’s Meeting with U.S President: Taiwan was the core of China’s core interest.
• Total reunification: He proclaimed to ensure “total reunification of China”.

Recent assertion by Xi Jinping:

• Unpredictable nature of the global situation, Indo-Pacific in particular.
• Troop training: To enhance troop training and combat preparedness.
• Taiwan: He warned of “dangerous storms ahead” and about external ‘interference’ in Taiwan.
• Recent Biden-Xi talks:Mr. Xi reiterating that Taiwan “was the first red line” that must not be crossed.
• Zero covid policy: Xi presented an image of social stability and universal contentment in the country, and said his Zero-Covid policy is premised on the principle of “saving people’s lives.

Global reaction:

• Japan: decided to double its defense budget to 2% of its GDP.
• Statements by western leaders including Joint Declaration following the recent G20 Summit in Indonesia.
• India: It is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system, as today’s era must not be of war”

What does China’s current preparedness reflect?

• Marxist: It reinforces Mr. Xi’s Marxist inspired belief that ‘history is irreversibly on China’s side.
• Preventing the ideological decay of the CCP and avoiding the kind of situation that led to the collapse of Soviet Communism.
• Ideological division: Ensuring that the West did not succeed in fomenting ideological divisions within China.
• CCP: Turn the CCP into the ‘highest church of a revitalized secular faith’ and the main citadel of Chinese Communist Orthodoxy.

CCP on India:

• No direct mention about India: Neither the deliberations in the Party Congress nor any of the post-Congress expressions by China’s leaders, appear directed at India.

Concerns for India:

• For India: border incursions are a continuing cause for concern.
• Undoubtedly, the incursions are not random, and tend to rise and fall.

China’s concern:

• They are largely regarding Aksai Chin; its importance, in China’s eyes, lies in its proximity to China’s Tibet and Xinjiang.

Way Forward

• China has certain clear red lines which cannot be breached and if this were to happen, it would lead to a major conflict.
• China may want to assess the situation and the circumstances before going on a conflict, including against strategic entities such as the Quad and AUKUS.
• The West needs to avoid past mistakes, such as those in the 1950s when the West seems to have overestimated China’s capabilities
• India in the late 1950s, when it failed to correctly read China and Chinese intentions.
• Military and economic strength: A belief that military and economic strengths automatically translate into a conflict matrix, may need more refinements.
• Repeated charges by western sources about China’s designs on countries in the Indo-Pacific, should not provoke India into taking any rash steps, as both situations and events tend to change rapidly.
• India’s growing closeness to the U.S. and the West certainly irks China: It is evident from the Party Congress deliberations, China sees the U.S.-led West as its principal antagonist.
• The recent flurry of statements between Indian and western leaders on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Cambodia, the ASEAN Heads of States meeting in Cambodia, and the G-20 Summit in Indonesia, can be expected to add grist to China’s suspicion of a strengthening of the coalition of forces ranged against it.
• CPC is aiming at misleading the people into believing that the CPC’s leadership is committed to building socialism.